exposure-coach

---
name: exposure-coach
description: Use when deciding equity exposure by synthesizing breadth, regime, and flow signals into an exposure ceiling, growth/value bias, participation read, and new-entry-allowed vs. cash-priority call.
category: Risk
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Exposure Coach — Market Posture Synthesis

Answer "how much capital should I commit to equities right now?" by synthesizing multiple market signal dimensions into one unified posture, before any single-stock analysis begins.

## When to use

Before initiating any new stock position, to determine appropriate capital commitment; at the start of each trading week, to calibrate portfolio exposure; whenever multiple market signals conflict and a unified read is needed; after a significant macro or market event, to reassess the exposure ceiling; and whenever the market is transitioning between regimes (broadening participation, narrowing/concentration, outright contraction).

## Signal dimensions

| Dimension | What it captures |
|---|---|
| Breadth | Advance/decline ratios, new highs/lows |
| Uptrend participation | % of stocks in confirmed uptrends |
| Macro regime | Concentration, Broadening, Contraction, etc. |
| Top-risk | Distribution-day count, market-top probability |
| Follow-Through Day (FTD) | Confirmed market-bottom quality signal |
| Theme/rotation | Active investment themes and sector rotation |
| Sector performance | Relative sector rankings |
| Institutional flow | Net institutional buying/selling |

Gather each dimension via web_search or the knowledge base, or ask the user to supply recent readings if they track these themselves. A missing dimension reduces confidence but should not block the synthesis — score what's available and explicitly list what's missing.

## Scoring approach

Score each available dimension on a consistent scale (e.g. 0–100), then combine into:

1. **Exposure ceiling** — maximum recommended equity allocation, 0–100%.
2. **Bias direction** — Growth vs. Value tilt, driven by regime plus institutional flow.
3. **Participation assessment** — Broad (healthy internals) vs. Narrow (fragile).
4. **Confidence** — HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW, based on how many dimensions were actually available and incorporated. If a signal was gathered but not clearly folded into the synthesis, say so explicitly and keep confidence capped rather than silently including it.

## Action mapping

| Recommendation | Action |
|---|---|
| NEW_ENTRY_ALLOWED | Proceed with stock-level analysis and new positions |
| REDUCE_ONLY | No new entries; trim existing positions on strength |
| CASH_PRIORITY | Raise cash aggressively; avoid all new commitments |

## A verification pitfall to avoid

Don't assume a signal was incorporated just because you went looking for it. If you gathered a reading for a dimension (say, theme/rotation strength) but it doesn't cleanly map onto the 0–100 scoring approach or clearly move the ceiling, don't fold it in by hand and call it done — report that dimension as gathered-but-not-incorporated, keep confidence capped, and summarize it separately alongside the posture rather than silently blending it into the score.

## Key principles

1. **Safety first** — default to lower exposure when inputs are incomplete or conflicting.
2. **Regime alignment** — let the macro regime set the baseline; breadth and the other dimensions adjust within those bounds rather than overriding it outright.
3. **Actionable output** — always produce a clear recommendation (ceiling %, bias, participation, action), not just a data dump of scores.
4. **Say what's missing** — explicitly list which dimensions were incorporated and which weren't, rather than implying false completeness with a single clean-looking number.

## Output format

A one-page Market Posture Summary: exposure ceiling %, bias direction, participation read, recommendation, confidence level, a per-dimension score table (dimension, score, status), and a short rationale paragraph naming the strongest driver(s) of the ceiling — e.g. "broad participation with low distribution-day count supports elevated exposure; new positions allowed within the ceiling." Keep it scannable enough that a trader can act on it in under a minute.