trade-hypothesis-ideator

---
name: trade-hypothesis-ideator
description: Use when trade logs, journal entries, or market observations suggest a potential edge and the user wants that turned into falsifiable, ranked trading hypotheses with kill criteria.
category: Strategy R&D
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from trade logs, journal entries, and market observations, critique and rank them, then optionally turn the winners into exportable strategy specs.

## When to Use

- After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
- There's a bundle of evidence (trade history, journal snippets, market data, observations) and the goal is falsifiable hypotheses, not vague ideas
- To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
- Before committing capital, to validate a new strategy idea against explicit kill criteria

## Methodology

1. **Normalize and extract evidence** from whatever mix of trade logs, journal snippets, market data, and observations is available into a structured summary of recurring patterns and quantifiable signal.
2. **Generate hypotheses** — draft 1-5 cards, each a specific, falsifiable claim about market behavior (not "momentum works" but a precise, testable mechanism with conditions).
3. **Critique** each: is the evidence sample large enough? Is there a plausible causal mechanism, or just pattern-matched coincidence? What would disprove it?
4. **Rank and assign a verdict**: `pursue` (evidence and mechanism strong enough to design an experiment), `revise` (promising but needs sharpening), or `discard` (too thin or implausible).
5. **Export (optional).** For `pursue` cards, produce an experiment design: entry/exit logic sketch, sample-size requirement, and explicit kill criteria — conditions under which the hypothesis should be abandoned before a full backtest. This becomes a strategy spec ready for a strategy-design/backtesting pipeline, with provenance tracing it back to the source evidence.

## Output

Per hypothesis: the falsifiable claim, supporting evidence excerpts, verdict, rationale, and — for `pursue` cards — the experiment design with kill criteria. Present as a ranked list in chat; include the strategy spec and provenance for exported cards.