breadth-chart-analyst

---
name: breadth-chart-analyst
description: Use when analyzing market breadth via the S&P 500 Breadth Index or US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio, assessing market health, or building positioning strategy, with or without chart images.
category: Market & Macro
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Breadth Chart Analyst

## Overview

Analyze two complementary market breadth charts that provide strategic (medium to long-term) and tactical (short-term) market perspectives: assess market health, identify trading signals based on backtested strategies, and develop positioning recommendations. Works with or without chart images — CSV data fetched via web_search is the primary data source, and chart images (when the user provides them) supply supplementary visual context. All thinking and output are conducted exclusively in English, presented as a chat markdown report.

## When to Use

- User provides S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA based) chart images for analysis
- User provides US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio chart images for analysis
- User requests market breadth assessment or market health evaluation
- User asks about medium-term strategic positioning based on breadth indicators
- User needs short-term tactical timing signals for swing trading
- User wants combined strategic and tactical market outlook
- User requests breadth analysis without providing chart images (CSV data mode)

Do not use this skill for individual stock analysis, sector rotation analysis without breadth charts, or news-based market analysis — hand those off to a teammate or a more specific skill.

## Data Sources (Primary)

CSV data is the PRIMARY source for all breadth values — chart-image reading is supplementary only, since visual chart interpretation is fragile and format changes can produce catastrophic misreads. Use web_search to retrieve:

1. **Market Breadth**: `tradermonty.github.io/market-breadth-analysis/market_breadth_data.csv` — 200-Day MA, 8-Day MA, Trend, Dead Cross status
2. **Uptrend Ratio**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/uptrend_ratio_timeseries.csv` — current ratio, 10MA, slope, trend (UP/DOWN), color (GREEN/RED)
3. **Sector Summary**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/sector_summary.csv` — per-sector ratio, trend, status (overbought/oversold)

Treat CSV values as authoritative for every subsequent step: 200-Day MA, 8-Day MA, the 8MA-vs-200MA spread (dead cross when 8MA < 200MA), trend direction, current Uptrend Ratio with color and slope, and sector summary.

## Core Principles

1. **Dual-Timeframe Analysis**: combine strategic (Chart 1: 200MA Breadth) and tactical (Chart 2: Uptrend Ratio) perspectives.
2. **Backtested Strategy Focus**: apply proven systematic strategies based on historical patterns.
3. **Objective Signal Identification**: focus on clearly defined thresholds, transitions, and markers.
4. **English Communication**: conduct all analysis and reports in English.
5. **Actionable Recommendations**: give specific positioning guidance for different investor types.

## Chart 1: S&P 500 200MA-Based Breadth Index

Purpose: medium to long-term strategic market positioning.

Key elements: 8-Day MA (orange line, short-term breadth trend, primary entry signal generator); 200-Day MA (green line, long-term breadth trend, primary exit signal generator); 73% threshold (average peak level, market overheating); 23% threshold (average 8MA trough level, extreme oversold, excellent buying opportunity); trough/peak markers on both the 8MA and 200MA; pink background marking downtrend periods.

Backtested strategy: BUY when the 8MA reverses from a trough (especially below 23%); SELL when the 200MA forms a peak (typically near or above 73%). This has historically produced high performance while avoiding bear markets.

## Chart 2: US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio

Purpose: short-term tactical timing and swing trading.

An "uptrend stock" is one trading above its 200MA/50MA/20MA with positive 1-month performance. Green regions mark the market in an uptrend phase, red regions mark a downtrend phase. The ~10% level is the short-term bottom (extreme oversold); the ~40% level is the short-term top (market overheating).

Swing trading strategy: ENTER LONG when the ratio's color changes from red to GREEN (especially from below 10-15%); EXIT LONG when color changes from GREEN back to red (especially from above 35-40%). Timeframe: days to weeks.

## Analysis Workflow

### Step 0: Retrieve CSV Data (Mandatory, Primary Source)

Before any image analysis, use web_search to pull the three CSVs above and record: 200-Day MA, 8-Day MA, the 8MA-vs-200MA spread and dead-cross status, overall trend; current Uptrend Ratio value, color, 10MA, slope, and trend; and the sector summary. Use these CSV values as authoritative for everything that follows.

### Step 1: Receive Chart Images (If Provided)

Confirm which chart(s) were provided — Chart 1 only, Chart 2 only, or both — and note any specific focus areas from the user. If no images are provided, skip straight to CSV-based analysis.

### Step 1.5: Two-Stage Chart Analysis (When Charts Are Provided)

Use a two-stage read to avoid mistaking historical data for CURRENT values:

- **Stage 1 (full chart)**: read the entire image for historical context — overall trend, cycles, key past troughs and peaks, long-term patterns.
- **Stage 2 (right-edge focus)**: focus visual attention specifically on the rightmost ~25% of the chart to determine CURRENT values — the current 8MA, current 200MA, current color, and current slope. This isolation prevents the common error of reading a mid-history dip (e.g., an 8MA of ~25-30% from months ago) as the current reading instead of the true current value (e.g., an 8MA of ~60-65%).

If Stage 1 and Stage 2 readings differ significantly, Stage 2 (right-edge) takes precedence. Report both: Stage 1 context plus Stage 2 current values.

**Analysis Protocol**: (1) read the full chart and document historical context; (2) focus on the right-edge region and document current values with high confidence; (3) cross-check — if Stage 1 and Stage 2 values differ significantly, Stage 2 wins; (4) report both Stage 1 context and Stage 2 current values together.

### Step 2: Load Breadth Chart Methodology

Before finalizing analysis, search the Knowledge Base for the breadth chart methodology covering: Chart 1 and Chart 2 interpretation and strategy, signal identification and threshold significance, strategy rules and risk management, combining both charts, and common pitfalls.

### Step 3: Analyze Chart 1 (200MA-Based Breadth Index)

**Extract current readings**: current 8MA level (orange), current 200MA level (green), 8MA slope, 200MA slope, distance from the 73% threshold, distance from the 23% threshold, and the most recent date visible.

**Latest-data-point trend analysis (critical)**: most misreads come from confusing the 8MA (orange, fast) with the 200MA (green, slow), or from reading historical trends instead of the rightmost data points. For the 8MA, trace the last 3-5 data points and determine whether the latest value is HIGHER or LOWER than 1, 2, and 3 weeks ago; classify the current slope as rising (latest point higher than the prior 2-3 points, with upward curvature), falling (latest point lower, with downward curvature), or flat (within 2-3% of prior points). Count consecutive rising periods (need 2-3 for confirmation) and consecutive falling periods. Repeat the trace for the 200MA over the last 4-6 weeks.

Example: "Latest 8MA — current 48%, 1 week ago 52%, 2 weeks ago 55%, 3 weeks ago 50%. Analysis: 8MA is FALLING — it rose from 50% to 55% then declined to 48%, a failed-reversal pattern; the bounce was temporary and the downtrend has resumed."

**Failed reversal detection**: if an 8MA trough was recently flagged, check whether the 8MA rose for only 1-2 periods before turning back down, failed to reach 60% before turning down, or is currently declining again after the bounce. Any of these means a FAILED REVERSAL — do not treat it as a valid entry signal.

### Step 4: Analyze Chart 2 (Uptrend Stock Ratio)

Extract the current ratio, its color (GREEN/RED), slope, and trend direction from the CSV, cross-checked against the chart's right edge if an image is provided. Apply the ENTER LONG / EXIT LONG rules above, and flag whether the current reading sits near the ~10% oversold or ~40% overheated thresholds.

### Step 5: Synthesize and Report

Combine Chart 1's strategic read with Chart 2's tactical read into a single narrative: current market health, active signals, scenario probabilities, and positioning recommendations for different trader types (strategic/medium-term vs. tactical/swing). State explicitly whether the two charts agree or diverge, since divergence changes the confidence of any recommendation.

## Output

Present the analysis as a chat markdown report with: an executive summary, current readings for both charts, signal identification (including any failed-reversal or divergence flags), scenario analysis with probabilities, and actionable positioning recommendations for different trader types. Offer to save the report to the Knowledge Base on request.