market-news-analyst

---
name: market-news-analyst
description: Use when analyzing market-moving news from the past 10 days — FOMC/ECB/BOJ decisions, geopolitical shocks to commodities, or mega-cap earnings — for an impact-ranked reaction report.
category: Market & Macro
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Market News Analyst

Analyze market-moving news from the past 10 days and its impact on US equities and commodities, producing a structured, impact-ranked English report.

## When to Use
- Analysis of recent major market news (past 10 days)
- Understanding market reactions to specific events (FOMC, earnings, geopolitical)
- Comprehensive market news summary with impact assessment
- Correlations between news events and commodity price movements
- How central bank policy announcements affected markets

## Step 1: Collect News via web_search
Search across these categories:
- **Monetary policy**: FOMC, Federal Reserve rate decisions, ECB, Bank of Japan — central bank decisions, forward guidance changes, inflation commentary
- **Inflation/economic data**: CPI, NFP jobs report, GDP, PPI — major data releases and surprises
- **Mega-cap earnings**: Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Google — results, guidance, market reaction
- **Geopolitical events**: Middle East conflict/oil, Ukraine war, US-China tensions, trade tariffs
- **Commodity markets**: oil, gold, OPEC, natural gas, copper — supply disruptions, demand shifts
- **Corporate news**: M&A, bank earnings, bankruptcy, credit rating downgrades

Prioritize sources in this order: (1) official — FederalReserve.gov, SEC EDGAR, Treasury.gov, BLS.gov; (2) Tier-1 financial media — Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, Financial Times; (3) specialized — CNBC, MarketWatch, S&P Global Platts.

For each item record: date/time, event type, source tier, and initial market reaction (pre-market, during trading, after-hours). Exclude stock-specific small-cap news, minor product updates, and routine filings — focus on Tier-1 market-moving events.

## Step 2: Apply Domain Knowledge
Draw on knowledge of central-bank reaction patterns (hike/cut, QE/QT, hawkish/dovish tone), geopolitical-commodity correlations (energy, precious metals, regional risk), and corporate/sector contagion patterns to predict expected reactions, then compare against what actually happened — flag anomalies where the market reacted atypically.

## Step 3: Score Impact Magnitude
For each item, score across three dimensions:

**1. Asset Price Impact** (Severe=10, Major=7, Moderate=4, Minor=2, Negligible=1 points):
- Equity indices (S&P 500/Nasdaq/Dow): Severe ±2%+, Major ±1-2%, Moderate ±0.5-1%, Minor ±0.2-0.5%
- Sector ETFs: Severe ±5%+, Major ±3-5%, Moderate ±1-3%
- Individual mega-caps: Severe ±10%+, Major ±5-10%, Moderate ±2-5%
- Oil (WTI/Brent): Severe ±5%+, Major ±3-5%, Moderate ±1-3%
- Gold: Severe ±3%+, Major ±1.5-3%, Moderate ±0.5-1.5%
- Base metals: Severe ±4%+, Major ±2-4%, Moderate ±1-2%
- 10Y Treasury yield: Severe ±20bps+, Major ±10-20bps, Moderate ±5-10bps
- USD Index (DXY): Severe ±1.5%+, Major ±0.75-1.5%, Moderate ±0.3-0.75%

**2. Breadth Multiplier**: Systemic (multiple asset classes, global) = 3x; Cross-Asset (equities+commodities, or equities+bonds) = 2x; Sector-Wide = 1.5x; Stock-Specific = 1x.

**3. Forward-Looking Modifier**: Regime Change (fundamental structure shift, e.g. Fed pivot) = +50%; Trend Confirmation (reinforces trajectory) = +25%; Isolated Event = 0%; Contrary Signal (contradicts prevailing narrative) = -25%.

**Formula**: Impact Score = (Price Impact Score × Breadth Multiplier) × (1 + Forward-Looking Modifier)

Worked examples:
- FOMC 75bps hawkish hike, S&P -2.5% (Severe=10), Systemic (3x), Trend Confirmation (+25%) → (10×3)×1.25 = **37.5**
- NVIDIA earnings beat, +15% stock / Nasdaq +1.5% (Severe=10), Sector-wide (1.5x), Trend Confirmation (+25%) → (10×1.5)×1.25 = **18.75**
- Geopolitical flare-up, Oil +8%/S&P -1.2% (Severe=10), Cross-Asset (2x), Isolated (0%) → (10×2)×1.0 = **20**
- Single-stock earnings (non-mega-cap), +12% no index impact (Major=7), Stock-specific (1x), Isolated (0%) → (7×1)×1.0 = **7**

Rank all items from highest to lowest score to determine report ordering.

## Step 4: Analyze Market Reaction
For each item scoring above 5, assess: direction/magnitude/timing of the immediate reaction; multi-asset response across equities (index performance, sector rotation, growth vs. value), fixed income (2Y/10Y/30Y yields, curve shape, credit spreads, TIPS breakevens), commodities (energy, precious/base metals, agriculture), currencies (DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, safe havens), and derivatives (VIX, put/call ratio, futures positioning).

Compare the observed reaction to the expected historical pattern:
- **Consistent** — matched pattern (e.g. Fed hike → tech down, USD up)
- **Amplified** — exceeded typical pattern; investigate positioning/sentiment/cumulative factors
- **Dampened** — less than typical; investigate whether already priced in
- **Inverse** — opposite of pattern (e.g. "good news is bad news" dynamics)

Flag anomalies: news shrugged off, overreaction to minor news, contagion that failed to spread, or safe havens that didn't work. Note whether risk-on or risk-off dominated and whether momentum followed through or reversed in subsequent sessions.

## Step 5: Assess Correlation vs. Causation
When multiple significant events land in the window, classify their interaction:
- **Reinforcing** — same direction, often non-linear combined impact (e.g. hawkish FOMC + hot CPI)
- **Offsetting** — opposite directions; identify which factor dominated
- **Sequential** — one event conditions the reaction to the next (path dependence)
- **Coincidental** — unrelated but simultaneous; note attribution uncertainty

For geopolitical events, trace commodity-specific transmission: energy (supply disruption risk, actual vs. feared impact, temporary spike vs. sustained), precious metals (safe-haven flows vs. real-rate drivers, central-bank buying), industrial metals (demand-destruction fears, supply chains, China factor), agriculture (Black Sea grain exports, weather, food-security policy). Distinguish direct transmission (news → immediate price reaction) from indirect transmission (news → economic impact → asset prices).

## Report Format
Present a ranked report: executive summary, top events by impact score with the scoring breakdown, multi-asset reaction detail, and a correlation/causation note where multiple events interacted. All output in English.