scenario-analyzer

---
name: scenario-analyzer
description: Use when the user wants an 18-month, multi-scenario investment impact analysis from a news headline, with sector effects organized by order of impact and an independent second-opinion review.
category: Technical
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Scenario Analyzer

Analyze medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from a single news headline. Combine a primary multi-angle analysis with an independent critical review into one comprehensive report.

## When to Use

- Analyzing the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
- Constructing multiple 18-month scenarios from one event
- Organizing sector/stock impacts into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects
- The user needs a comprehensive analysis that includes a genuine second opinion, not just one pass

## Workflow

### Phase 1 — Prepare

1. **Parse the headline.** If none was given, ask for one. Extract key entities (companies, countries, institutions), numeric data (rates, prices, quantities), and the core action (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.).
2. **Classify the event type** into one category: Monetary Policy (FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate moves, QE/QT), Geopolitics (war, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction), Regulation & Policy (environmental, financial, antitrust), Technology (AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors), Commodities (oil, gold, copper, agriculture), or Corporate & M&A (acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, restructuring).
3. Use web_search to gather related news from the past two weeks for context before analyzing.

### Phase 2 — Primary Analysis

Construct three scenarios — Base, Bull, Bear — whose probabilities must sum to 100%, each grounded in the gathered news and the headline's likely mechanism of impact. For each scenario, analyze sector impact at three depths: 1st-order (directly affected industries), 2nd-order (value-chain and related industries), 3rd-order (macro, regulatory, or technological knock-on effects). Select 3-5 US-listed stocks (ADRs included) likely to benefit and 3-5 likely to be hurt, with concrete rationale for each.

### Phase 3 — Second Opinion (mandatory)

Independently critique the primary analysis — either by @mentioning a specialist teammate for a genuine second opinion, or, if none is available, by deliberately re-examining the analysis from an adversarial stance — across six angles: overlooked sectors or stocks, validity of the probability allocation, logical consistency of the impact chain, optimism/pessimism bias, plausible alternative scenarios, and realism of the timeline. This step is not optional — skipping it produces a one-sided analysis.

### Phase 4 — Integrate and Report

Fold the review's findings back into the analysis: fill gaps it identified, adjust probabilities if warranted, correct for any bias it flagged, and produce a final recommendation with concrete action items, key risk factors, and monitoring points (indicators/events to watch going forward).

## Report Structure

Structure the final report with these sections, in order:

1. **Related news articles** — the items gathered during Phase 1 research
2. **Scenario overview** (through 18 months out) — Base Case, Bull Case, Bear Case, each with its probability and the reasoning behind that probability
3. **Sector/industry impact** — three subsections: 1st-order (direct), 2nd-order (value chain/related industries), 3rd-order (macro/regulation/technology)
4. **Stocks expected to benefit** (3-5 tickers, with rationale)
5. **Stocks expected to be hurt** (3-5 tickers, with rationale)
6. **Second opinion/review** — the critique from Phase 3, presented in full, not summarized away
7. **Final investment judgment and implications** — recommended actions informed by the review, key risk factors, and monitoring points (indicators/events to track going forward)

## Quality Checklist

Before presenting the report as finished, confirm:

- The headline and its key entities/numbers/actions were parsed correctly
- The event-type classification is appropriate for the headline
- Base + Bull + Bear probabilities sum to exactly 100%
- The 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts are logically connected to each other, not just individually plausible
- Each stock pick has concrete, specific rationale — not generic sector exposure
- The second-opinion review actually happened and is visibly reflected in the final judgment
- The report follows the full section structure above

## Standards

- English throughout; standard US ticker symbols
- US-listed equities only (ADRs included)
- 18-month horizon, phased 0-6 / 6-12 / 12-18 months
- Base + Bull + Bear probabilities must sum to exactly 100%, each justified
- The second-opinion review is mandatory on every run and must visibly shape the final judgment
- Deliver the finished report directly in chat, well-organized under the section headers above