macro-regime-detector

---
name: macro-regime-detector
description: Use when the user asks about the current macro regime, structural market rotations, long-term positioning from yield-curve/credit signals, or cross-asset ratios like RSP/SPY or HYG/LQD.
category: Market & Macro
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Macro Regime Detector

Detect structural macro regime transitions using monthly-frequency cross-asset ratio analysis, to inform 1-2 year strategic portfolio positioning (not tactical timing).

## When to Use
- User asks about the current macro regime or a regime transition
- User wants to understand structural market rotations (concentration vs. broadening)
- User asks about long-term positioning tied to yield curve, credit, or cross-asset signals
- User references specific ratios: RSP/SPY, IWM/SPY, HYG/LQD, SPY/TLT, XLY/XLP
- User wants to assess whether a regime change is underway

## Methodology
Use web_search / knowledge_base_search to gather roughly 600 days (about 2 years) of monthly-frequency data for the relevant ETFs/rates, then score six weighted components:

| # | Component | Ratio/Data | Weight | Detects |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Concentration | RSP/SPY | 25% | Mega-cap concentration vs. broadening |
| 2 | Yield Curve | 10Y-2Y spread | 20% | Interest-rate cycle transitions |
| 3 | Credit Conditions | HYG/LQD | 15% | Credit-cycle risk appetite |
| 4 | Size Factor | IWM/SPY | 15% | Small vs. large-cap rotation |
| 5 | Equity-Bond Relationship | SPY/TLT + correlation | 15% | Stock-bond regime |
| 6 | Sector Rotation | XLY/XLP | 10% | Cyclical vs. defensive appetite |

Classify the overall regime as one of:
- Concentration — mega-cap leadership, narrow market
- Broadening — expanding participation, small-cap/value rotation
- Contraction — credit tightening, defensive rotation, risk-off
- Inflationary — positive stock-bond correlation, traditional hedges failing
- Transitional — multiple signals present but no clear pattern yet

## Output
Present: the current regime assessment, a transition-signal dashboard across the six components, component-level detail and evidence for the classification, and portfolio-posture recommendations appropriate to a 1-2 year structural horizon.

## Relationship to Other Analyses
This sits at a longer time horizon (1-2 years, monthly data) than tactical tools like a Market Top Detector (2-8 weeks, daily data, 10-20% correction focus) or a Market Breadth Analyzer (current-snapshot, daily data, breadth-health scoring) — treat it as the strategic layer those tactical reads sit inside of.