uptrend-analyzer

---
name: uptrend-analyzer
description: Use when asking about market breadth, uptrend ratios, or whether current conditions support equity exposure; scores a 0-100 composite from breadth, participation, rotation, and momentum.
category: Market & Macro
version: 1.0.0
tools: []
---

# Uptrend Analyzer

Diagnose market-breadth health using an uptrend-ratio dashboard tracking roughly 2,800 US stocks across 11 sectors. Produces a 0-100 composite score (higher = healthier) with exposure guidance — assessing whether the market's advance is broad or narrow, distinct from top-formation risk scoring.

## When to Use
- "Is the market breadth healthy?" / "How broad is the rally?"
- Assessing uptrend ratios across sectors
- Market participation or breadth conditions
- Exposure guidance based on breadth analysis

## Data
Gather sector-level uptrend-ratio data (via web_search or knowledge_base_search) — the share of stocks in each of 11 sectors trading in an established uptrend — along with recent history to confirm data recency.

## 5-Component Scoring System
| # | Component | Weight | Signal |
|---|-----------|--------|--------|
| 1 | Market Breadth (Overall) | 30% | Ratio level + trend direction |
| 2 | Sector Participation | 25% | Uptrend sector count + ratio spread |
| 3 | Sector Rotation | 15% | Cyclical vs. Defensive balance |
| 4 | Momentum | 20% | Slope direction + acceleration |
| 5 | Historical Context | 10% | Percentile rank in history |

## Scoring Zones
| Score | Zone | Exposure Guidance |
|-------|------|--------------------|
| 80-100 | Strong Bull | Full Exposure (100%) |
| 60-79 | Bull | Normal Exposure (80-100%) |
| 40-59 | Neutral | Reduced Exposure (60-80%) |
| 20-39 | Cautious | Defensive (30-60%) |
| 0-19 | Bear | Capital Preservation (0-30%) |

Each zone further splits for finer detail: 80-100 Strong Bull, 70-79 Bull-Upper, 60-69 Bull-Lower, 40-59 Neutral, 30-39 Cautious-Upper, 20-29 Cautious-Lower, 0-19 Bear.

## Warning Penalties
Apply after the composite score, stacking to a max of -10 (plus a +1 multi-warning discount when ≥2 are active):
- **Late Cycle** — commodity average exceeds both cyclical and defensive averages: -5
- **High Spread** — max-min sector ratio spread > 40 percentage points: -3
- **Divergence** — intra-group std > 8pp, spread > 20pp, or trend dissenters present: -3

## Momentum Calculation
Smooth slope values with a 3-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) before scoring. Compute acceleration by comparing the recent 10-point average vs. the prior 10-point average of smoothed slopes (falling back to a 5-vs-5 window when fewer than 20 data points exist).

## Historical Confidence
Rate confidence (High/Medium/Low) on sample size, regime coverage (proportion of distinct bull/bear/neutral regimes observed), and recency of the latest data point.

## Presenting Results
Report the composite score and zone, exposure guidance, a sector heatmap of strongest/weakest sectors, and the key momentum/rotation signals driving the score. Distinguish this from a top-formation risk detector: here a higher score means healthier (broader) participation, whereas top-detection frameworks score the opposite direction (higher = riskier), typically pull from paid data providers, and target the O'Neil/Minervini/Monty top-formation methodology rather than breadth participation.